Cometh the hour, cometh the man
01 October 2024 . #2409
Jennifer Paldano Goonewaradne analyzes the 2024 presidential election and evaluates the silent ascent of the Marxist-leaning Anura Kumar Dissanayake to the presidency. Furthermore, she explores the factors that contributed to this paradigm shift in Sri Lanka, which resulted in the ousting of both grand old parties, the UNP and SLFP, from power.
Introduction
Sri Lanka has a new president. Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) from the National People’s Power (NPP) was inaugurated as the ninth executive president on 23 September 2024. At the age of fifty-six, AKD becomes the first president of Sri Lanka with a Marxist-leaning ideology. His noteworthy ascent to the presidency from the fringes is particularly significant, given that his alliance parties was not even the principal opposition till now. In the 2019 presidential election, he garnered only about 3% of the total votes against Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who received about 52%. After nearly fifteen years of concentration of power among a few political elites, he has achieved the highest office in the nation. It is also notable that no member of the Rajapaksa family currently occupies any prominent position. As a political entity once deemed peripheral, the NPP’s unexpected rise and subsequent success astonished not only the Sri Lankan populace but also the world in general. The longstanding traditional political parties in Sri Lanka have, in effect, contributed to the emergence of this phenomenon.
Coming of Age: JVP and Presidential Elections
AKD fundamentally embodies the adage ‘rising from the ashes,’ achieving a remarkable 42.31%, falling short of the 50% threshold required for victory—an outcome that many believed would be unattainable in contemporary history. Following a lackluster performance in 2019, the NPP secured only two seats in the 2020 parliamentary election, along with one bonus seat, thereby reducing their representation in parliament to a mere three members. As a component of the Janatha Vimukthi Permuna (JVP) or People’s Liberation Front, the NPP bore the weight of its historical legacy, specifically the 1988-1990 insurrection, a somber chapter that remains sharply etched in the collective memory of a generation of voters. On election stages, the armed uprising of the JVP to seize power during 1988-1990, which included killings and political assassinations, unofficial curfews, sabotage and strikes, was strategically exploited by the NPP’s political adversaries, who consistently reminded the populace of it, depicting the NPP as untrustworthy and as a potential threat to democracy and capitalism. However, the developments that have transpired since the 2022 Aragalaya have significantly enabled the NPP and JVP, in particular, to transcend this characterization.
The JVP, under new leadership, has achieved a significant milestone in the history of Sri Lanka. Fifty-nine years after Wijeweera founded the party, Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) has ascended to the highest office in the nation through the electoral process. Unlike Wijeweera, who placed third in the 2019 elections with 418,553 votes (3.16%), AKD pursued reform via the ballot, transforming the party while preserving its core principles. The rebranded National People’s Power (NPP) formed an alliance of 21 diverse organizations, including political parties and civil society entities, such as the Public Servants for Public Service (PSPS), the National Bhikkhu Front, the Community Party (Alternative Group), University Teachers for Social Justice, Doctors for Social Justice, Progressive Women’s Collective, National Intellectuals Organisation, All Ceylon Estate Workers’ Union and the Inter Company Employees’ Union, promoting a vision of prosperity that harmonizes economic growth, social well-being, and environmental sustainability. In addition, the NPP adopted the compass as a symbol, becoming widely known as ‘Malimawa’ (compass) in 2019 and indicated that it will remain as the champion of the people’s aspirations.
Committed to innovation and education, the NPP emphasizes corruption-free governance, strategically addressing issues that resonate with public sentiment, especially following the 2022 Aragalaya protests, and has emerged as the voice of the populace. The leaders of the NPP recognized that corruption, perpetuated by successive governments, had profound economic, political, and cultural consequences, notably eroding trust in public institutions. Their message underscored the importance of good governance and the eradication of corruption. Discontent with the political status quo, the populace in post-2022 viewed this new political movement, offering an alternative narrative, as a chance for change in 2024. Thus, AKD emerged as a symbol of the people’s aspirations for a nation free from corruption and nepotism, where all citizens could share equitably in its prosperity.
Sri Lanka’s Governance Decline and the NPP
The political and policy rift between President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe during the period from 2015 to 2019, ultimately led to unsuccessful good governance that both stated publicly, leading to unpopular initiatives. Meanwhile, the SLPP alliance, led by Mahinda Rajapaksa and conceived by Basil Rajapaksa, propelled Gotabaya Rajapaksa into the spotlight as a potential redeemer after the Easter bombings. The Rajapaksa faction utilized right-wing populist narratives to gain popularity among the Sinhalese groups. As a result, in November 2019, the Rajapaksas reclaimed power with Gotabaya as president and Mahinda Rajapaksa as prime minister, establishing a prominent political dynasty once again.
Though praised for managing the COVID-19 pandemic, Gotabaya’s electoral decisions worsened economic mismanagement and unsustainable debt, causing significant declines in investor confidence and resulting in five downgrades of the nation’s sovereign rating by 2022. Notably, Sri Lanka’s regression unfolded under the leadership of Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who obtained a substantial mandate through a popular vote of 6.9 million and secured the backing of the Sinhala Buddhist majority. This demographic regarded him as the island’s savior, but his policy decision created economic instability and political unrest, culminating in to a popular people’s protest, Aragalaya. Indeed, this was the precursor to the victory of the AKD and the decline of the Rajapaksa faction and traditional political entities.
Consequently, Sri Lanka faced debt and foreign exchange crises, compounded by rising global oil prices and U.S. interest rates. The depreciation of the rupee forced the country to deplete reserves for imports. The forex crisis was attributed to poor fiscal policies rather than inadequate export performance. Consequently, Colombo struggled to meet foreign debt obligations, leading to severe shortages of critical items. The island’s unprecedented decline was marked in May 2022 with its first-ever default on external debt and subsequent declaration of bankruptcy. Internationally, the nation’s reputation suffered significantly, appearing on the verge of turmoil. The public was agitated, culminating in a peak protest movement. On July 9, 2022, Gotabaya Rajapaksa was ousted from office and escorted to safety amid the public’s fury surrounding the President’s House.
Ranil-Rajapaksa Coalition and 2024 Election
The public protest movement experienced a violent escalation on May 9, 2022, when supporters of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa attacked demonstrators, culminating in Rajapaksa’s resignation. In the aftermath of this crisis, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa extended an invitation to opposition members to take on leadership responsibilities, which was accepted by Ranil Wickremesinghe. Subsequently, on July 9, 2022, Gotabaya fled the country in response to the mounting protests demanding his resignation, and he officially resigned on July 14, 2022, designating Ranil as the acting president. Mr. Wickremesinghe, who was the sole nominated member of the United National Party (UNP) at that time, ultimately garnered the support of 134 parliamentary members, primarily from the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) associated with the Rajapaksa administration, to assume the presidency, despite lacking a public mandate.
In order to control of the mood of the nation, he swiftly negotiated a stringent IMF deal, agreeing to a 48-month emergency loan of $2.9 billion and implementing austerity measures. While Ranil stabilized the rupee and reduced inflation from 74% in 2022 to 4% in 2023, critics suggested he expedited the IMF agreement for electoral advantage in 2024. Public sentiment turned sour amid dissatisfaction with austerity policies and stagnant real wages, leading to the 2024 presidential election being viewed as a referendum on Ranil’s administration. The election also represented a protest against the political establishment’s corruption and failures. Ranil’s confidence in victory was evident where allegedly during an interview he claimed the competition was between Anura Kumara Dissanayake and the Sajith Premadasa rather than himself, believing in public gratitude for his leadership during the time of crisis. However, the election results contradicted these expectations.
An Alternative Voice
As citizens of Sri Lanka faced challenges from the Ranil Wickremesinghe-negotiated IMF program, Anura Dissanayake and the NPP rose to address prevailing concerns. AKD’s anti-establishment perspective resonated with the public, presenting him as a patriotic alternative free of racial bias, alongside a party ready to challenge the entrenched political system with obscured party lines. However, others have pointed out that the JVP has historically identified itself with the Sinhala Buddhist ideology, its rhetoric reflecting the concerns of the majority, drawing upon the support of the Sinhala Buddhist youth. On the other hand, established political parties have traditionally safeguarded their interests, making Sajith Premadasa struggle to offer a distinct alternative amid allegations regarding his dealings with Rajapaksas. Ranil’s reputation suffered due to his involvement in the Central Bank bond scandal and a record of ignoring corruption. The Rajapaksas organic fertiliser controversy, where accountability was shifted to the state minister for importing substandard fertiliser costing Colombo $6.7 million, highlighted issues of impunity. Allegations also arose against the former health minister for substandard pharmaceuticals and vaccines, compounded by dubious power purchase agreements and a recent visa scam. Many voiced grievances over these injustices, yet justice remained elusive for those harmed by inferior medications, and the silent agreement among power holders persisted.
In this context, AKD and his party represented the people’s grievances. Social media was utilized to connect with electorates on humanitarian issues, corruption, prosperity, and unity. The theme song in Sinhala and Tamil conveyed national unity and collective prosperity. Notably, AKD and the NPP undertook this independently, avoiding alliances with established political elites as the election season began.
Paradigm Shifts
In 2019, Gotabaya Rajapaksa proclaimed he was elected by the Sinhala Buddhist majority. Nearly five years later, Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s support also came from this group. Both leaders ascended through the Sinhala Buddhist vote, which between 2005 and 2019 was influenced by race and ethnic politics, nurtured by the Rajapaksas, whereas, AKD’s 2024 supporters aimed for reform and meaningful change. From 53,000 votes in Colombo in 2019, AKD rose to over 600,000 votes in just over four years, achieving notable success. In Hambantota, he secured 221,000 votes, up from 26,000. AKD gained substantial support in the south, winning Kalutara (47.43%), Galle (51.45%), and Matara (52.46%), where he previously had less than five percent. Also, he garnered over 800,000 in Gampaha, a stark contrast to the 61,000 he received in 2019. AKD won in 15 of the 22 districts polled.
Meanwhile, minority votes were largely divided between the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and the United National Party (UNP). SJB secured Jaffna, Batticaloa, Trincomalee, Vanni, Ampara, Nuwara Eliya, and Badulla, supported by parties like the Tamil National Alliance and Sri Lanka Muslim Congress. In 2024, the Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC) endorsed Ranil Wickremesinghe, despite SJB winning Nuwara Eliya in both 2019 (238,649 votes) and 2024 (139,110 votes), with Ranil receiving 91,132 votes and AKD 38,832 votes. AKD increased its votes from 2,304 (0.76%) in 2019 to 38,832 (12.19%) in 2024, indicating significant trends as the parliamentary election approaches. While AKD won in Colombo, Sajith Premadasa prevailed in areas with larger minority populations.
Interestingly, several parliamentarians from the SLPP distanced themselves from the Rajapaksa-led faction to lend their support to Ranil Wickremesinghe in the presidential election; however, Wickremesinghe was unable to secure any constituencies previously held by Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2019. Although he ascended to the presidency in 2022 with the endorsement of the SLPP, he found himself lacking their support in 2024, a situation exacerbated by Namal Rajapaksa’s candidacy. As the parliamentary elections draw near, these defected members of parliament are actively seeking new political alliances.
Concurrently, more than 3.5 million eligible voters, representing 20.5%, abstained from voting, seemingly perceiving that their participation would not effect meaningful change. Possibly attributable to the corruption and nepotism associated with the UNP and SLFP and the violent history of the JVP. The Commissioner General of Elections has admonished political parties for their inadequate engagement with the electorate.
This year’s election indicates a decline in lifelong party loyalty, with more swing voters making choices based on candidates and policies. After more than fifteen years, the 2024 presidential election campaigns marked a historic shift, as none of the four principal candidates—Anura, Sajith, Ranil, and Namal—resorted to religious or ethnic politics. This change is attributed to AKD and the NPP, who conveyed a unifying narrative that was focused on economic and political reforms.
AKD’s agenda focuses on upholding democratic principles and fostering public trust, resonating with voters. With election over, only time will reveal AKD’s legacy. In the meantime, AKD and his party are preparing for the parliamentary election on November 14, 2024 where the NPP must secure a majority to prevent a recurrence of history.
Conclusion
The post-election landscape in Sri Lanka reveals a nation confronted with political uncertainty while simultaneously harboring optimism for reform. The electorate’s decisions signify a profound desire for transformation in the face of persistent economic challenges. It is imperative for newly elected President and his administration to prioritize transparency and accountability, thereby cultivating trust in governance and adequately addressing the urgent needs of the populace. A collaborative strategy will be essential in effectively navigating the complexities ahead and guiding the nation toward a prosperous future.
Jennifer Paldano Goonewaradne is an Independent Analyst and Writer based at Colombo, Sri Lanka.
Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the CHSIA.