Challenges of Diplomacy: Shifting Trends in the India-Maldives Relations
18 June 2024 . #2407
Ansa Roy examines the diplomatic challenges within the India-Maldives relationship and delves into the evolving trends over the past year.
Introduction
The historical relationship between India and the Maldives has been characterized by diplomatic cooperation, cultural exchanges, and mutual respect. However, a notable shift in Maldives’ relationship with India has been observed in recent times. The rise of anti-India sentiments in the Maldives has resulted in hostility and strained relations between the two nations. This article aims to analyze the impact of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the Lakshadweep archipelago and how it has become a point of friction leading to the deterioration of the dynamic between the two nations. In particular, the article explores the broader bilateral relations of the two countries over the past year, including their effects on regional stability, security dynamics, and strategic interests. The article highlights how a seemingly local event can have significant effects on the broader international geopolitical landscape.
India-Maldives Ties – Overview
India and the Maldives maintain a strategic relationship, although stealthy diplomatic tensions have led to heightened unease. Notably, Maldives holds a significant position in India’s ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’, adding complexity to the dynamics between these two South Asian nations, which are influenced by social, political, and cultural factors. India was among the first countries to recognize Maldives following its independence in 1965 and to establish diplomatic relations with the nation. On the international stage, the Maldives has consistently lent support to India in multilateral forums such as the United Nations (UN), the Commonwealth, and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).
Furthermore, India took the initiative to respond to the Maldives, demonstrating prompt and immediate action during the 1988 coup attempt. This act showcased India’s commitment to safeguarding the interests of the Maldives, while also strengthening bilateral relations with the island nation through the successful execution of ‘Operation Cactus’. In 2004, India was the first country to offer assistance to the Maldives during the Tsunami and the subsequent post-Tsunami operations. Similarly, India provided comprehensive support to Maldives during the Covid-19 pandemic.
India and the Maldives entered into a trade agreement in 1981, which facilitates the export of essential commodities between the two nations. Notably, India stands as the second largest trade partner of the Maldives, as demonstrated by the bilateral USD Currency Swap Agreement signed between the Reserve Bank of India and the Maldives Monetary Authority in 2019.
Additionally, Indians constitute the second largest expatriate community in the Maldives. Out of the country’s approximately 400 doctors, more than 125 are of Indian origin. Equally, approximately 25% of educators in the Maldives are Indian, primarily occupying positions at the middle and senior levels. Furthermore, India ranks among the largest sources of visitors to the Maldives, and in 2023, it led in sending the highest number of tourists to the country.
Modi’s Visit to Lakshadweep Island and the Diplomatic Dispute
The tensions between India and Maldives escalated following the visit of the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, to Lakshadweep Island in January 2024, during which he shared photographs of the visit. A diplomatic dispute arose between the two countries when three Maldivian leaders – Malsha Shareef, Mariyam Shiuna, and Abdulla Mahzoom Majid – made derogatory remarks about Indian Prime Minister Modi on the digital platform. Mariyam Shiuna, the Maldivian Deputy Minister of Youth Empowerment, took to Twitter to label Prime Minister Modi as a “clown,” “terrorist,” and “puppet of Israel” in a post that was later removed due to widespread protest. The incident led to the summoning of the Maldivian envoy in connection with the escalating diplomatic tensions between India and Maldives. Incidentally, social media, a key driver of foreign policy during this conflict, has a significant role to play in escalating tensions.
The High Commissioner of Maldives to India, Ibrahim Shaheeb, was summoned to the Ministry of External Affairs where India conveyed its strong concerns regarding the recent comments. In response, the Muizzu administration promptly suspended three officials who were involved in the incident. Following the derogatory remarks, individuals from India began posting comments on Prime Minister Modi’s pictures, suggesting that there was no need to visit Maldives when such pristine beauty could be found in Lakshadweep. These comments provoked a strong reaction from the Maldivian government, despite the fact that Prime Minister Modi had not made any remarks about Maldives or its scenic attractions.
On the other hand, promoting tourism in Lakshadweep is crucial for India, as it significantly contributes to the economy through revenue generation, job creation, and support for local businesses. By attracting both domestic and international tourists, India aims to boost the country’s foreign exchange earnings too. Furthermore, it fosters domestic travel and tourism within India, enhancing connectivity, cultural exchange, and national integration.
While fluctuations are common in a partnership, the current instability in the relationship between India and Maldives can be attributed to Maldives’ divergent foreign policy approach under the current regime led by Mohamed Muizzu. But what is intriguing is that the crisis originated due to an online dispute among the citizens of two countries and subsequently escalated into a diplomatic standoff between the two nations.
Muizzu Administration and Indian Policy
The longstanding tensions between India and Maldives came to the forefront when Dr. Muizzu, assumed power in November 2023. The Muizzu administration has demonstrated a strong commitment to enhancing relations with China while maintaining traditional ties with India, signifying a departure from past approaches. Apparently, Muizzu looks determined to reduce his country’s dependence on India. Apart from pressing for the withdrawal of the Indian military from the island, his government has opted not to renew a hydrographic survey deal with India. Mohammed Muizzi maintained that despite their small size, it does not give others the right to engage in bullying tactics. He stressed that the Maldives is not situated in anyone’s backyard, but is an independent and sovereign state. Notably, Muizzu chose Turkey for his inaugural official visit, breaking the tradition of Maldivian leaders visiting India first. This unconventional move strained the bond between the two countries.
Consequences
Consequently, the diplomatic dispute resulted in a boycott of Maldives by Indian tourists, leading to a significant decline in tourist numbers. In response, Maldivian leaders asserted their belief that India could not rival Maldives as a tourist destination. This led to public endorsements of Indian beaches and other tourist spots, along with suspension of flight bookings to the Maldives by a major Indian travel site. Furthermore, tensions escalated when President Muizzu called for Indian troops to leave Maldives and sought to pursue a more independent foreign policy, including enhancing ties with China. These frictions were exacerbated when President Muizzu declined to seek Indian assistance for a critically ill 14-year-old boy, ultimately resulting in the tragic loss of the boy’s life.
The Maldives’ economy, heavily reliant on tourism, suffered a severe setback. Notably, even Bollywood stars and celebrities were offered trips to the Maldives under the condition that they would share promotional images of the island and its tourist attractions. The dynamic of the India-Maldives relationship has shifted from being ‘India-first’ to an ‘India-Out’ campaign, due to the impact of a single posted picture (Sharma, 2024). The strong nationalistic sentiments of the Indian people have led to notable actions, such as a restaurant in Uttar Pradesh offering free chole bature to individuals who have canceled their trips to the Maldives, as a demonstration of solidarity with their nation.
In the midst of diplomatic tensions, the Maldives kept closer ties with China, even encouraging Chinese tourists to visit the country following India’s boycott of the Maldives as a tourist destination. Muizzu’s state visit to China, where he emphasized the necessity for heightened Foreign Direct Investment, trade, and tourism during the ‘Invest Maldives’ forum, has raised concerns in India. Furthermore, there is an intention to implement a China-Maldives Free Trade Agreement. The 20 agreements signed between Maldives and China also raised concerns among Indian observers, leading to a shift in the tourism rankings where China overtaking India and pushing it to fifth place. Adding to the developments, the Maldives is set to receive a military boost from China, as indicated by the signing of a new military pact.
However, Indian External Affairs Minister Jaishankar remarked that given the nature of politics, there are no assurances that every country, every day, or everybody will support or agree with India. He further highlighted that despite the fluctuations in political dynamics, the aim has always been to cultivate positive sentiments toward India among the people of the country and the broader society, as well as to recognize the importance of maintaining strong relations with it. Jaishankar also emphasized the mutual need between neighbors, highlighting India’s willingness to reconcile with its smaller neighbor.
The conflict garnered considerable attention and escalated to a diplomatic level, largely due to the importance of both the Maldives and Lakshadweep islands. The Maldives holds a significant position in Indian foreign policy, primarily because of its strategic location in the Indian Ocean region. Both countries share security interests, including efforts to combat terrorism and piracy. India and the Maldives are engaged in collaborative efforts pertaining to numerous maritime initiatives.
The Maldivian opposition leaders have urged for diplomatic reconciliation and have requested President Muizzu to offer an apology for his colleague’s anti-India statement as a means of rebuilding and strengthening relations with India. With increasing calls for boycotts and escalating hyper-nationalistic rhetoric, Mr. Muizzu finds himself in a position where he cannot afford to antagonize India. As a result, amid strained ties, Maldives President was in India for PM Modi’s swearing-in in June 2024. India’s proximity, economic strength, and historical role as a prominent security provider in the Indian Ocean make it a crucial player in the region.
Apparently, the diplomatic tension may have had an impact on the Maldives’ economy. For India, the instability in its relationship with the neighboring country could pose challenges, especially in light of the maritime boundaries and the substantial role that the Maldives plays in initiatives such as ‘SAGAR’ and the ‘Neighborhood First Policy’.
Conclusion
The Maldives, under President Muizzu’s leadership, gravitated towards China, resulting in anti-India statements and a subsequent deterioration of bilateral relations between the two countries. While China’s overwhelming presence in the Maldives could poses a potential threat that India cannot afford to ignore, it was quiet diplomatic in conveying its concern. That’s why despite public discontent in India regarding the recent controversy over Indian Prime Minister Modi’s photo and his visit to Lakshadweep island, the Indian government remained silent and focused on fostering ties with the Maldives. Muizzu is expected to remain sensitive to the Indian concern. Otherwise, the bilateral ties will witness a severe crisis. India may not have significant leverage to prevent Maldives from becoming another link in the Chinese “string of pearls” strategy surrounding India, but it will certainly devise a diplomatic plan to safeguard its interests.
Ansa Roy is a Post-Graduate Student at the Department of International Studies in Stella Maris College (Autonomous), Chennai, India.
Views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the CHSIA.